After a humiliating 0-3 whitewash to New Zealand in the recent home test series, Team India’s qualification chances to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final become challenging, as they must fight back to beat Australia with a 4-0 margin.

A grueling 5-match test series against the Aussies in the upcoming Border Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 starting from November 22 in Perth would decide India’s fate after losing their top spot in the WTC 2023-25 points table.

The other three competitors are still in the race to secure the top two spots in the points table and participate in the grand final at Lords in June 2025 which includes the following teams:

• Sri Lanka (3rd position): 60 Points and 55.56%.
• New Zealand (4th position): 72 Points and 54.55%. 
• South Africa (5th position): 52 Points and 54.17%.

Previously, India lost the 2-match home test series against South Africa in 2000. As a result, Rohit Sharma and his men will be under immense pressure to face the Aussies, particularly losing the home test series after 24 years. Also, the date 3rd November 2024 will be recorded in the history of cricket as India faced its first-ever clean sweep at home in 3 or more test match series. 

However, India’s loss to New Zealand has enhanced the WTC champions Australia to make it into their second consecutive final and currently rank at the top position in the points table. If India fails to defeat Australia with a 4-0 or 5-0 margin, they have to depend on the other team’s results to seal their spot in the finals.

Evaluating the possible scenarios helps to determine how the 2-time WTC runners-up could make it a hat trick to qualify for the finals having 98 points and 58.33%

Scenario 1: Not Being Dependent on Other Teams Result

The Border Gavaskar Trophy is the only test series left for India in the WTC 2023-25 cycle and can still enter the finals without having to depend on other teams’ outcomes.

Out of the five-match test series, India needs to triumph over the Pat Cummins-led team by 5-0 or 4-0 to boost their points percentage above 65. It is understood that a draw result would be fine, but India shouldn’t afford to lose even a single match in the series.

Winning at least four out of five matches will certainly uplift India’s PCT ((Points Percentage) to 65.79, which would be higher than New Zealand even if they defeat England in the upcoming test series 3-0.

Scenario 2: Depending on Other Teams Result

If India manages to win the BGT by 4-1, they would attain 64.1 PCT and weaken Australia’s chances to qualify for finals. At the same time, there could be huge competition from South Africa, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand if they win all the matches in their forthcoming series. This is because these three teams have a game-changing chance in the following ways:

Here is how other teams can leave the chance for India to qualify for the WTC final with a 4-1 victory in the BGT under these possible scenarios:

Scenario 3: Can India Qualify for the WTC 2025 Final Even After Losing the BGT to Australia?

Suppose India loses the series to Australia in the BGT with 2-3, they can still qualify for the WTC final by securing the second position in the points table. However, the other contenders should conclude with a draw result in their upcoming test series which is less likely to occur:

• New Zealand: 1-1 vs England in 3-match test series.
• South Africa: 1-1 vs Sri Lanka and Pakistan in 2-match test series.
• Australia: 0-0 vs Sri Lanka in 2-match test series.

If the above four series conclude with these results, then India would still secure its second spot with 53.51% and rank above South Africa, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka which would conclude with 52.78%, 52.38%, and 51.28%. However, the Aussies would enter the WTC finals as table toppers with 58.77% based on the above-mentioned situations.

Final Opinion:

Overall, the qualification scenario for the World Test Championship has become much more complicated after India’s historic loss against New Zealand in the recently concluded 3-match test series at home.

Although India has won their previous two Border Gavaskar Trophy assignments in Australia, the team has been performing poorly and registered unwanted records ever since Gautam Gambhir became the new head coach. Also, the Pat Cummins-led test team has been more successful and dominant which helped the Aussies win the previous year’s WTC final against India at The Oval in the previous year. Finally, it is a challenge for India to not only continue their winning streak in BGTs but also strengthen the chances to advance into their third consecutive WTC final as well