Team India’s chances to qualify for the WTC (World Test Championship) 2025 final have been the most frequently asked question after a severe 10-wicket loss in the pink ball test against Australia at the Adelaide Oval.
Losing the second match of the 5-match test series in the ongoing Border Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 not only helped Aussies level the series with 1-1 but also resulted in Team India dropping to third position in the points table.
Recently, South Africa’s 109-run victory against Sri Lanka, helped them secure a clinical series win with 2-0 and climbed to the leading spot in the WTC 2023-25 points table.
Moreover, the Proteas are less likely to find themselves under pressure. This is because they have to win at least one out of two matches in the forthcoming test series against Pakistan. As a result, India and Australia would be left clashing with each other to conclude the ongoing WTC cycle in the top two positions.
Although Sri Lanka is still in the race, their qualification chances depend upon other teams’ results, which is a complicated scenario.
With 110 points and 57.29 PCT, India now needs to focus on winning the remaining three test matches of the BGT 2024-25 to make it into the hat trick of the WTC 2025 final.
Currently, India is left with three more test matches against the Australians in the present WTC cycle. Based on five possible outcomes of 4-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-2, and 2-3 in the current BGT 2024-25, let’s delve deeper into the qualification scenarios that would help evaluate Rohit Sharma’s led side to qualify for their third consecutive WTC final.
SCENARIO 1: India Winning the 5-Match Test Series with 4-1
| Outcome | Points Gained | Possible PCT |
| 4-1 | 146 Points | 64.05 PCT |
Team India cannot take the risk of losing any of the three upcoming matches so that they wouldn’t be required to rely on other teams’ results and rankings in the points table. By securing three victories, the visitors would gain 146 points and 64.05 PCT, which would be impossible for Australia to fight back, even if they defeat Sri Lanka in the 2-match test series with a 2-0 margin.
SCENARIO 2: India Winning the 5-Match Test Series with 3-2
| Outcome | Points Gained | Possible PCT |
| 3-2 | 134 Points | 58.77 PCT |
Suppose the Australians win one game and the Indians secure a convincing victory in the other two, then Rohit Sharma and his team will accumulate 134 points with a PCT below 60 ((a result that is 58.77 approximately).
Let’s assume that Australia wins both the test matches against Sri Lanka. In such conditions, they will conclude with 126 points and a possible PCT of 55.26.
Whereas, South Africa would retain their leading position by winning their remaining 2-match home test series against Pakistan to secure a PCT of 69.44.
SCENARIO 3: India Winning the 5-Match Test Series with 3-1
| Outcome | Points Gained | Possible PCT |
| 3-1 | 138 Points | 60.52 PCT |
India securing two wins and a draw result against the Aussies would make them gain 138 points and 60.52 PCT. In such conditions, Australians would find themselves eliminated from the race regardless of winning the series against Sri Lanka by a 2-0 margin, which helps them gain only 57 PCT.
SCENARIO 4: India Leveling the 5-Match Test Series with 2-2
| Outcome | Points Gained | Possible PCT |
| 2-2 | 126 Points | 57.01 PCT |
A combination of wins, losses, and draw results in the remaining three tests would ensure India concluding at 126 points at 57.01 PCT. In such conditions, the WTC 2023 champions Australia would knock out India easily by climbing above the points table with 130 points.
The only chance India would be left depending on the results of the Sri Lanka vs Australia test series. In other words, the two-time WTC runner-up should hope Sri Lanka to defeat Australia by a huge margin and secure a whitewashing win of 2-0, which could be a challenging scenario.
SCENARIO 5: India Losing the 5-Match Test Series with 2-3
| Outcome | Points Gained | Possible PCT |
| 2-3 | Less than 126 Points | Possibility to drop up to 55.01 PCT (approximately) |
Losing the 5-match test series with a 2-3 outcome would straight away eliminate India from the competition, thereby allowing South Africa and Australia to qualify for the WTC 2025 finals.
Conclusion: WTC 2025 Final
If India has to secure a spot in the final, they will have to win at least 2 out of 3 remaining Tests in the series. In such conditions, India would acquire victory of a 3-1 or 3-2 to have a stronger chance. But if it is something lesser than that, it could degrade their position. Moreover, India’s qualification will solely depend on other teams’ results. Especially, it will be based on the results of Australia and South Africa.
Whereas, South Africa (with 76 points and 63.33 PCT) and Australia (with 102 points and 60.71 PCT) currently secured the first two spots in the WTC 2023-25 points table, which leaves India’s qualification scenario much more challenging.