In the past three weeks, there have been huge twists in the qualification scenarios of the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 finals as none of the teams are guaranteed to lock the first two positions in the points table. Especially, South Africa and New Zealand have made strong attempts to enhance their chances of playing finals by accomplishing whitewashes in Bangladesh and India.
Out of the 18 test matches remaining in the WTC 2023-25 cycle, the focus completely shifts to the Border Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) featuring the 5-match test series between India and Australia starting from November 22.
A 0-3 loss to New Zealand has not only been humiliating but also a huge blow to the Indian cricket team in the following ways:
- Dropped from top spot to second position in the WTC points table with Sri Lanka ranking at third.
- Ending of 18 consecutive winning streaks and 12 years of dominance in the home test series.
- First Loss in the Test Series at home since 2012.
- First Whitewash loss in three or more matches in a home test series.
- New Zealand’s first series win in India.
- New Zealand accomplishing their first whitewash against any opponents in a test series.
As a result, India needs to win against Australia with a scoreline of 4-0 to strengthen their chances of playing in the WTC finals at Lords in June 2025. This is the only way to be certain to finish in the top two spots and could make their qualification scenario easier without depending on other teams’ outcomes.
Let’s find out how the top five teams are in the race to seal their spot which provides clarity on India’s opportunities to make it into the hat trick of WTC finals.
1. AUSTRALIA: 90 Points and 62.50 PCT
Series Remaining in WTC Cycle: 5-match test series vs India (home) and 2-match test series vs Sri Lanka (Away)
Australia needs to win five out of their remaining seven games to have a strong chance to defend their WTC championship title at Lord’s.
Suppose, the Aussies secure a 4-0 win against India followed by a 0-2 loss to Sri Lanka, then New Zealand and England can surpass the defending champions 62.3 PCT in the following ways:
- New Zealand: 64.3 PCT by defeating England by 3-0
- Sri Lanka: 69.2 PCT by defeating South Africa by 2-0.
2. INDIA: 98 Points and 58.33 PCT
Series Remaining in WTC Cycle: 5-match test series vs Australia (Away)
After a brutal defeat of 0-3 to New Zealand, India needs to win by 5-0 or 4-0 to boost their PCT above 65%. Although South Africa or Sri Lanka might exceed India in terms of PCT, they would still qualify for the finals.
However, the Aussies were never defeated on their homeground with a whitewash in the history of test cricket so far, which is a serious threat for Rohit Sharma and his men.
Suppose, India wins by a 4-1 scoreline and reaches 64.1 PCT, they can still be outperformed by any of these three teams with a higher PCT by winning all their remaining test matches:
- South Africa: 69.4%
- Sri Lanka: 69.2%
- New Zealand: 64.3%
If India loses the series with a 2-3 scoreline, they will still be knocked out by the Aussies even if the defending champions lose the series to Sri Lanka with a clean sweep of 0-2. In such conditions, either Sri Lanka, South Africa, or New Zealand could easily grab the top two spots to qualify for the WTC 2025 finals.
3. SRI LANKA: 60 Points and 55.56 PCT
Series Remaining in WTC Cycle: 2-match test series vs South Africa (Away) and 2-match test series vs Australia (Home)
Despite losing the series against England by a 2-1 margin, Sri Lanka has moved up to third position in the points table by winning back-to-back games in the 2-match test series against New Zealand.
It is a golden opportunity to win all the remaining four matches and increase the PCT to 69.2% which can be outperformed only if India wins the Border Gavaskar Trophy with a 5-0 scoreline. However, the Aussies have never faced a clean sweep loss which gives an added advantage to the Lankans.
Winning three out of four games would help Sri Lanka conclude with 61 PCT which helps to keep their hopes alive of participating in the WTC finals by requiring other contenders to decline points.
4. NEW ZEALAND: 72 Points and 54.55 PCT
Series Remaining in WTC Cycle: 3-match test series vs England (Home)
The inaugural season of the WTC Champions New Zealand was out of contention after a crushing defeat of 0-2 to Sri Lanka. But, a new chapter opened up for Kiwis after their historical whitewash of 3-0 in India.
By securing another whitewash of 3-0 against England, New Zealand’s 64.3 PCT cannot be surpassed if the South Africa vs Sri Lanka series concludes with a 1-1 draw. In such scenarios, the winner of the Border Gavaskar Trophy (either India or Australia) could compete against New Zealand at Lord’s.
At the same time, the Kiwis need to boost their points against England and by failing to do so, their PCT will drop below 60%, which requires multiple results to work to gain entry in the WTC finals.
5. SOUTH AFRICA: 52 Points and 54.170 PCT
Series Remaining in WTC Cycle: 2-match test series vs Sri Lanka (Home) and 2-match test series vs Pakistan (Home) A dominating 2-0 victory in Bangladesh has pushed South Africa to the fifth spot in the WTC points table, despite their poor start in the first half of the cycle. With four more home tests remaining, the Proteas have a solid chance of winning all their matches against the less challenging teams and securing 69.4 PCT. However, winning three out of four matches will help them conclude with 61 PCT, which gives them a healthy window of opportunity. At the same time, other teams in contention will need to lose one of their remaining matches to miss out on a few points